The AI Bubble is About to Pop.
Summary
The video makes a directionally serious case — there is a real helium and LNG supply shock from the 2026 Iran war, AI labs are genuinely unprofitable, and S&P 500 concentration in a handful of AI-linked names is at historic highs. But the headline argument that Anthropic is operating at a '500% loss' because output tokens are priced 5x higher than input tokens is a category error: both numbers are prices charged to customers (revenue), not Anthropic's costs. Several specific figures are roughly right (helium ~30% of global supply impacted, AMD P/E ~126, hyperscalers reporting same day) while others are exaggerated (AI as '45% of S&P weighting' — top 10 stocks are ~40-41%, AI-specific exposure is lower depending on methodology) or wrong (Fed did not hike rates on April 29). The macro thesis has substantial supporting evidence; the underlying analytical reasoning has key errors.
Claims Analyzed (14)
Source Quality
The video is a single-creator commentary that gestures at sources ("this article was last week," "you could just look this up") without naming or linking them. Specific data points like Anthropic's pricing table and current P/E ratios are verifiable, but most claims are presented without citation. The speaker repeatedly relies on rhetorical math ("5x is a 500% loss") that misrepresents what the numbers measure. Macro claims about the Iran war's impact on helium and LNG supply align with reporting from Fortune, the Atlantic Council, Foreign Policy, and the U.S. Congressional Research Service, but the video does not cite them.
Transcript
Introduction
The thesis is blunt: AI is in a market bubble, and the needle that pops it is now visible. The argument distinguishes between a revolutionary technology and a market bubble. The dot-com era still gave us the modern internet, but that did not stop the market from forming and bursting one of the largest bubbles in history. Bubbles inflate and pop based on timing and profits, not on the legitimacy of the underlying technology. AI may be a generational technology — and the speaker remains long-term bullish — but the claim here is that the math has decisively turned, and a 45% AI-weighted S&P is sitting on top of it.
The Profitability Problem
The video opens by attacking the most common defense of AI valuations: that "AI makes tons of money." The counter is that the model labs themselves — Anthropic, OpenAI, Gemini — operate at massive net losses. Headline ARR figures are dismissed as inflated by circular financing between model labs and the data center hyperscalers that host them.
To illustrate, the video uses Anthropic's published API pricing for the flagship Opus 4.6: roughly $5 per million input tokens and $25 per million output tokens. From this, the speaker concludes Anthropic is operating at a "500% loss" on outputs, with similar arithmetic applied to OpenAI's GPT-5 ("$5 input, $30 output"). The argument extends to free consumer usage: most users never pay, and inputs from free traffic still feed training data.
The speaker concedes — explicitly — that he was previously comfortable with this loss structure because the hyperscalers (Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, plus Nvidia, AVGO, TSM) are the largest, most profitable companies in the world, and AI infrastructure is their natural arena. They could plausibly absorb several years of cash burn to reach profitable agentic AI and eventually AGI. What changed is not the speculative thesis but the cost base underneath it.
The Helium and Energy Shock
The pivot in the video is the destruction of physical inputs needed to manufacture and run AI. Roughly 30% of global helium and LNG production capacity has been destroyed, not merely disrupted. Helium is essential for chip manufacturing — it cools wafers during fabrication — and LNG underlies the energy cost of running data centers. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and Gulf state operators have publicly guided to a 3-to-5-year repair timeline, "closer to five."
Because helium and LNG trade on global markets, domestic production cannot insulate U.S. buyers — sellers route to the highest bidder. The downstream effect is that chip costs rise, data-center energy costs rise, and the AI economics that were "barely breaking even" in prior capex math now flip to outright losses.
The speaker layers a second pressure: the consumer side. The U.S. consumer is two-thirds of GDP. With gas, food, and shipping costs spiking from the same supply shock that hit oil and fertilizer, discretionary spending on AI products becomes implausible. The data centers were already eating losses to subsidize the model labs; now they cannot, because their own input costs have moved against them.
The Lemonade Stand Analogy
The argument is illustrated through a lemonade-stand analogy. You spend $10 to start; first sales bring $20; customers rave; you reinvest $100 in upgrades expecting $200 back. Then a war breaks out, 30% of lemons and sugarcane are destroyed, the local strait closes, and 20% of trade has to reroute. Your costs are up, your prices have to rise, demand falls, and consumers can't afford lemonade anyway because they're paying double for gas and groceries. The $100 in capex is already spent — chips depreciate, you can't unspend it — and you've sold lemonade-stand stock to 45% of the market. That is the structure the speaker sees in AI today: the capacity is built, the demand is gone, and the bubble is sitting on top of it.
The Dot-Com Comparison
The video then takes on the second common defense — that "this time is different" because AI weight is concentrated in profitable infrastructure companies, not speculative websites. The speaker argues this is precisely backwards: the dot-com era too was concentrated in infrastructure, not in pets.com or AOL. The leaders of that bubble were Cisco, Intel, Microsoft, and GE — picks-and-shovels names, profitable, with strong revenue.
The historical numbers offered: Intel earning roughly $10 billion in net income in 2000 at ~30x earnings; Microsoft ~$10 billion at ~50x; Cisco ~$3 billion at 129x. The speaker compares those to today's semiconductor multiples — AMD at 126x, Nvidia at 44x, AVGO at 81x — to argue that the bubble math is at least as stretched, and arguably worse. The added wrinkle: in a buildout-driven bubble, infrastructure EPS is overstated because hyperscalers are overbuilding capacity. When demand fails to absorb the buildout, the EPS floor disappears and valuations collapse.
The Catalysts
The speaker offers two timing scenarios. The first is immediate: the four core hyperscalers — Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Google — are reporting after the close on the same day, an unusual arrangement, with a Federal Reserve meeting on the same day. Either guidance reveals helium-driven cost pressure, or the hyperscalers signal a pullback in capex, which would crater the semiconductor names downstream. A surprise Fed rate hike would compound the move. The second scenario is the OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs — equivalent to the Amazon and Netscape moments in 2000 — which would force public disclosure of unit economics that retail investors have not had to confront.
Who Is Affected and What to Do
The closing argument is that no one in broad index exposure is spared. AI-related names dominate Q-heavy and S&P-heavy portfolios. Funds bundle tech together; it sells together. Dow-heavy, dividend, and consumer-defensive portfolios have lower valuations and more cushion. Individual stock pickers de-levered from AI may do fine. The speaker frames the downside not as a flash crash but as a multi-year bear market — two to three years minimum — driven by the simultaneous AI bubble pop and the consumer recession that the supply shock is producing. The conclusion: warnings only come before the crash, and after the pop, the speaker plans to be a buyer of AI infrastructure at materially lower prices.
Show raw transcript with timestamps
We are in an AI bubble and it is about to pop. Now, this has been building up for a while now, but now we actually have the needle that pops the bubble. Now, before people start getting angry, do keep in mind I'm not some kind of AI hater, not some kind of doomer either. You can go look at the channel. I was a super early Palunteer investor and an early AMD investor. And I'm still pretty bullish on the technology, but I'm just able to see that the markets formed this massive bubble and now we have the needle that pops it. Because do understand that there is a difference between a technology and a market bubble. Remember that dot was one of the biggest and most famous bubbles in history. But we still use the internet, right? It was still a revolutionary technology. Doesn't change the fact the market formed a massive bubble. Same thing here. Market bubbles build and pop based on timing and profits, not based on the legitimacy of the technology. I still believe that AI is a revolutionary technology, but I am telling you the
market has formed an unsustainable bubble and now it is about to pop. And now to start, we're going to be debunking the main arguments against this claim because I can already hear what people are saying. Oh, you just don't get it. AI makes tons of money. This is nothing like dot com. The.com bubble was just speculative websites. They didn't make any money at all. So, you can't compare the two. Or you might be a little more reasonable and you're thinking, well, I can see the 45% S&P waiting in AI, but the difference this time is that the weight is in AI infrastructure companies. All the weight is in the picks and shovels of AI. So, it's different this time, right? So, let's break those down in order. First of all, AI makes tons of money. Incorrect. AI actually loses tons of money. The actual AI companies, the models, Anthropic, Open AI, whatever else, Gemini, these guys are massively unprofitable businesses. They might make revenue. That pretty ARR number that everybody likes to talk about. First of
all, those are just from the data centers. The data centers they run on give them revenue. It's called revenue sharing, right? The circular financing. We're not going to talk about that because people love to ignore it. The main thing to look at is are they operationally profitable? Do they make a profit? No. They operate at a massive net loss. Not a small one, a massive net loss. People just want to focus on that pretty revenue number, but nobody wants to focus on the cash burn. So, instead of explaining the revenue and the circular financing that people just conveniently like to ignore, let's talk about the profitability. This is something you cannot ignore. We're going to start with anthropic. the current AI sweetheart. This is Anthropic pricing in 2026. This article was last week, uh, two weeks ago, give or take. And this is Anthropics API pricing by model. Anthropic charges per million tokens with separate rates for input tokens, which is what you send, and output tokens, what the model returns. So, this is how much it costs you, and this is
how much it costs them. And just take a look at it yourself. This is the flagship model, their their most updated one, the Opus 4.6. Per input, it costs about $5. But on the output side, for them, it cost them $25. That's 5x. That means they're operating at a 500% loss. That's not just a little bit unprofitable. That is massively unprofitable. That is burning cash, just lighting it on fire. And now it's slightly cheaper on the batch input and batch output, but uh it's still about 5x. All right, it's always operating at a 500% loss. And do keep in mind 500% loss that is a speculative company. You know how we operate here and when we look at when we look at margins, we completely just ignore any kind of company that operates at that kind of a net margin because that's gross. That's that is terrible. And this is their flagship model. This is their best model. But obviously you go down to all the old models, it's the same thing. 5x
5x 5x. And do keep in mind also that this is only it looks like it's only factoring in the the chatbot. It's not even factoring in the coding and all the the generative stuff that Claude can do. Just the chatbot by itself is running at a 500% loss. I would imagine any of the coding capabilities or anything more complex is even worse. And most people are using this for free. They give this out for free. So, not only is it a 500% net loss, it's also not making revenue in a lot of cases. So, that's even worse. And this is consistent across the board, right? I'm on OpenAI's website here. Okay, it's the same thing. Input $5, output 30. Oh, it's worse. It's worse on GPT55. That is a 600% loss on 5.4. It's disgusting. You know, my quick math is not great. AI is consistently running at a terrible, terrible loss and
they're giving it out for free. And remember, these are the companies that need to turn a profit. These are the companies that everybody in the circular finance, everybody's relying on these companies to make the breakthrough. These are the companies that everything is riding on. Nvidia, Amazon, all the data centers, and the entire market, 45% market waiting, this is what this is riding on. And these companies operate at a 500% net loss. They lose 5x or more what they bring in. An emphasis on the more part because I've been using AI for a long time. Not once have I spent a dime on AI. Okay. Actually, I did pay for Opus Clip, but other than that, all the chat bots I use for free. And I know there's a lot of other people like think about Google. Everybody, you automatically use Google's AI even if you don't want to. They are just burning cash on everybody. And of course, the reason they do so is because the more inputs they get, the more training they get for their AI. And they need the training so that they can develop their
AI to eventually get to the next stage, right? Agentig and then hopefully AGI at some point, which is super intelligence. And now the question you have to ask yourself is how sustainable do you think this is to be operating at this heavy of a net loss? How sustainable is it for them to be giving all these products away free? And we're also getting reports from corporate companies, from Fortune 500 companies that AI is not contributing to productivity. These are recent reports that are coming out now because now that they've been integrating it, they're coming back and going, "Yo, this is not good stuff." The whole dream of aic AI is going to replace all this is literally what they're saying. They're saying a is going to replace all white collar work by 27. But now we're getting the truth. We're getting the truth that agentic AI is garbage. Like all this stuff is not working. Now, I'm not saying it won't eventually get there. I do think we're going to get to super intelligence, AGI, Agentic. I think we're getting we're going to get there eventually, but clearly not anytime soon, and clearly
not soon enough for 45% of the market to be riding on this right now. 45% of the market is a bigger bubble than we've ever had. 41%. And again, I'm not against AI. I'm not I'm not bearish on the technology. I think it's a a revolutionary tech, just like the internet was a revolutionary technology. But that bubble still popped because timing and profits. This is how the market works. The market works on money. It doesn't work on hopes and dreams. So that's the first thing to get out the way of the whole trope of AI makes so much money. No, they don't. They don't make any money. They burn money. They lose money. That's what they do. But the reason they've been able to stay afloat for so long and the reason why everybody's kind of blind to this is because the AI companies are being subsidized by the hyperscalers. They're being subsidized by the biggest and most profitable companies in the world, the Mag 7. And not only do these companies have the cash to burn, not only are they
the biggest companies, they're also data center cloud chip companies. They work in this arena. So adding AI is like not a it's not an unfamiliar territory to them. Remember Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, they've had data centers for 20 years. Like they they do this. They do cloud hosting. They do this. And of course, Nvidia, AVGO, TSM even. Like these guys, they're chip companies. They've been making chips forever. AI is just an upgraded version of that. It takes a more advanced chip and it takes a more extensive data center, but it's all still the same arena, right? And now that right there is why I personally I didn't really have a problem with a lot of this stuff. I didn't really have a problem with the market waiting. I didn't have a problem with the capex spend. I didn't have a problem with a lot of this bubble kind of stuff before because I'm looking at it and I'm like, well, they're the biggest and the best companies in the world and this is their territory. So if they're coming out and saying, yeah, this should be all right. I think I think we could burn for a
couple years for these guys to develop the agentic and the super intelligence eventually because do keep in mind if they get to a very comprehensive agentic model a very strong agentic model agentic itself will be very very profitable because that would replace white collar work that will replace so much work and people will pay so much money for that and then eventually after that they'll get to super intelligence they'll get to super intelligence they'll get to AGI and that just kind of solves all the problems in the world. Not really. It'll probably ruin everything, but it's it'll be insanely profitable. So, that's why I didn't really doubt it. I didn't really question it too much because they're the best companies in the world. And if they're saying that they can do this for a couple years, then, you know, who am I to question them? Like, when everyone was freaking out about the capex spend, I was still okay. You know, I wasn't I wasn't bullish on it because I ran the math. I was looking at the math and I was looking at it. I'm going, "Okay, uh, this is like break even. This is like there's no wiggle room here. at all for the capex spend. Side note on that, I
feel like a lot of you guys don't know what capex means. This is money spent. This is investment. They they've already thrown the money down. There's no there's no like, oh, we'll just stop spending. Like, you can't unspend half a trillion dollars. Do understand that. Not to mention, if you're spending it on chips, the chips will depreciate. The chips lose value, which means you can't even hold an asset. Like, they're going to be dead pretty soon. But I was still confident that the best companies in the world, they know what they're doing. They got there for a reason, right? So that's why I just let it slide because, you know, AI is super cool. I use AI a lot. I I think it's like amazing. I think it do really crazy things. But now I'm telling you that just doesn't work anymore. It simply does not work anymore. Cuz remember when all this capex spend was? Remember when people were having a problem with this? This was a few months ago, right? when everybody was making a fuss about the capex spend and how it's like oh wow that's like that's all of their cash flow that's all of their earnings like how how this isn't sustainable at all
this spend literally need to show profits very soon or else these companies are not going to be putting out BPS and now remember when it was it was a few months ago and when that math that calculus was being done it was at a time when there was stable energy and stable chip costs remember that capex spend all that mess with the capex spend was before the war. Now the math is completely different. You can't make you can't have the same calculus. Okay, where before it was already like break even. It was already really nervous. Okay, it was already at a point where most people were looking at it and like I can't hold any MAX 7s. I can't hold any AI stocks because it's just the money doesn't work out. And to me, I was looking at it, I'm going, "Okay, the money barely works out here." Now, it's it's cooked. Like, they are going to be losing losing losing money. And I've already explained in my warning video that 30% probably more at this point,
30% of the helium and LG factories, this is the production of helium and LG, 30% of the global production. This is not just from the Gulf States. I'm talking about the global production. 30% of it has been blown up, has been destroyed, disappeared. This is not a disruption like, oh, the o the straights closed, the oil's like disrupted, but oh, Trump will open back up. This is not that. It's been blown up. It's gone. Okay? They've come out and said already, the Gulf States have come out and said that it's going to take us three to five years to get the thing back online. Closer to five. All right? This is not a disruption. This is destruction. It's gone. I don't know what people aren't getting here. Helium is essential in chip production. You need it to cool down the chips so you can even operate on them. 30% of that is smitherines. Energy costs, which is what it takes to run a data center. Smitherines gone. Okay, that means that the cost of chips and the cost it takes to run a data
center skyhigh for the next three to five years. It doesn't matter if we make our own helium. It doesn't matter if we have our own LG supply. There is something called a global market. I've explained this with oil, but when things are traded on a global market, it doesn't matter what we have. It's going to be traded up. It gets sold to the whole world. Like there's no there's no patriotism bias. There's no any kind of bias because there's companies that sell helium. There's companies that sell LG. So if they have a buyer that's going to pay double or triple the price, yeah, these guys are going to pay double to triple the price, too. No matter how you shake it, the costs of making chips and running a data center through the roof. And of course, that directly changes the math. The original math, the original data center AI math was barely was barely shaking out. Okay, it was like like this like like this. Now that everything is like double the cost, uh
loss, it's a straight loss. I don't know like the very simple math, right? I don't understand why this is not clicking. And again, this is not a matter of, oh, Trump's a business guy. He's just going to open the straight and it's all good. No, like the factories are kablammo. It's gone. And not to mention, is the straight open? Is the straight anywhere near opening? Does it look close to opening at all? No. So, what are we even talking about here? I remember when I first made the warning video, people were like, "Oh, this isn't a problem. You're fear-mongering." Like, well, I guess maybe if the straight is closed a few more weeks, then it'll be a problem. It's been a few more weeks. Is it a problem now? No, because you love Trump. I don't know. Like, what what are we talking about? Think. Think. And like this is an obvious obvious thing. Okay. Like I told you already before, I didn't have a problem. I didn't have a problem with all this AI bubble stuff. I didn't have a problem with any of it. People have been calling AI bubble for a long time because massive net loss, no profits, and a 45% weighted. Like that,
that's a bubble. But for me, I'm looking at it like, you know, that might be okay. It might be okay because of how crazy AI is. Like I I use this stuff. I've been using it on the daily. Not anymore because it kind of sucks now because they can't run they can't run their stuff anymore. But I was looking at it and I'm going, you know, I can see where this is going. this is going to get to a point where it actually does make an insane amount of money. So, I kind of ignored it. Now, it's impossible to ignore. It's impossible to ignore because I'm going to say it again. They were barely breaking even before. Now, they are screwed. They're all screwed. And this is only from the data center side of things. This is only from the company side. What about from the consumer side? Who's going to be paying for AI products? This seriously, who's going to be paying for AI products when gas prices and food prices I've already explained the oil and the fertilizer that's all cooked. And again, the
straight's not open. I don't even know what we're even talking about here. But it's like such an obvious thing. But understand that consumers consumers as much as people want to look down on consumers, they contribute to like 2/3 of GDP. So if they aren't spending, if they aren't spending, the economy falls apart and the last thing the last thing they're going to be spending on is AI products, a cool chatbot, AI girlfriend. Like stop the data center companies. They were already taking a massive loss subsidizing the AI models that open AI anthropics. They were already taking the hit trying to bankroll these guys. Now they just they physically cannot. I just think the market has no idea how things work. They don't know how business works. They don't know how anything works. So, you know what? Let me triple down on this real quick. And let me give you an analogy to help you explain how capex works, how investment works. So, imagine I had a lemonade stand. I built
a lemonade stand. It cost me $10 to build the stand and get the lemons and the sugar and the water, right? Lemons and sugar mostly. Cost me $10. I opened up the stand and on the first round of sales, first round of lemonade sales, I made $20. I made $20 and I had customers lined up, right? People were raving about my lemonade talking about, "Oh, this is the best lemonade in the world. This lemonade is going to change the whole world." And because of that, I take that feedback and I go, "All right, bet." And I go spend $100 on upgrades to my lemonade stand. Just the stand. All right, I get some chairs. I get new a new sign. I get tables and all that, right? I mean, if I made $20 on $10, if I go spend $100, I'm probably going to make $200, right? So, I'm already in the hole like $100, but you know, I'm expecting to make $200 in the future. But then out of nowhere, there's a war in Florida, let's say, and in this war, the Flidians, they burn down 30% of the
lemon trees and 30% of the sugarcane farms, while at the same time, they close down the the straight of Florida, whatever. So what does that mean? Obviously now my lemonade costs are going to go up because the lemon and the sugar costs go up. So I have to charge more for my lemonade. So off just that I should probably assume that the demand for my lemonade is going to go down because part of the reason people love my lemonade so much was how cheap it was given out for free some of it. But turns out that 20% of US trade goes through the straight of Florida. So that means that the cost of everyday goods, gas, food, the shipping cost of everything, those are going to be going up for for the average consumer. So not only should I expect demand for my lemonade to come down because my price is up, right? Higher prices lowers demand, but at the same time, even if they wanted to pay for my lemonade, they can't because they have to pay for survival. They have to pay for, you know, the gas for the car
to go to work, and they have to pay for food to eat to survive. which obviously means my expensive lemonade is nowhere on anyone's mind. All that demand we had before, all gone. All gone. But massive problem here. I've already spent $100 on the lemonade stand. I've already dropped the money on the lemonade stand. I paid for it. I've built the lemonade stand. The the lemonade data center. I've built it up already. And at the same time, I've convinced 45% of the market to buy my lemonade stock. What would you call that? You call that a lemonade bubble, right? That's about to pop. A lemonade bubble that is about to pop. It's exactly the situation we have. All the data centers are built, but the demand is gone. The demand is gone. This is economics business 101. And the stock market is just a gamblers market now. Like, nobody nobody even thinks anymore. I don't I don't get it. I don't even know why I have to break it down this simply. And obviously, I'm not saying that people aren't going to drink lemonade again. People will eventually drink lemonade when times are okay. When
times are good and they got some money to spend, they'll pay for lemonade. When my prices come down, when the lemons and the sugar and everything gets replanted and regrown, well, then my cost will come down and then they can pay for the lemonade again. And then we'll be back cooking. But in the 3 to 5 years that that is not happening, that they're screwed and I'm screwed. The market, what is the market going to do? They're selling my lemonade stock. Gone. Gone. Gone. And remember, earnings profits drive stock price. EPS drives the stock price. If there are no earnings to be had, there's no floor for the stock price. It's just going to it's it's gone. Even if I got it from myself, my own cash flow doesn't matter because now I have nothing to pay. Now I got nothing to pay the shareholders. All the people who bought my lemonade stock, I can't I can't give them anything. I can't give them EPS, nothing. Can't show them nothing. There are no profits to be had in the Mac 7. Uh the big four, the big four, Mac 7. I'm sure Apple can do pretty good, but there are no profits to
be had in any AI related company for the next three to five years. And that's everyone. I don't care if you're AI infrastructure. I don't care if you're Max, okay? Especially Max, right? The data centers itself, the data center companies, they're fried because they got to pay more for chips and pay more for energy. There's nothing you can do about that. You're fried because you're already operating at a net loss. With the chip companies, you're going to have to take a hit on either your revenue or your earnings. We had this we had the same conversation when it came to Nvidia versus AMD. AMD made a cheaper chip. That means Nvidia either takes a hit on their revenue or their earnings. Their choice. Now, they're both going to have to make that decision because of the Helium cost going up. You either take the hit to your earnings because your input costs are up. Your COGS, your cost to make the chips, that's up. So, you either make less profits or you have to raise your price, which lowers demand. Simple math, simple economics, simple business. Uh, if you can't understand, you shouldn't be in the market. Right? So, that's just the the first thing, the
the main thing really, the main thing of AI makes money. No, it doesn't. And here's why it's going to pop because the math has changed. Very simple. But now, let's connect it to the dot bubble because it's been building very, very much the same. I've just been ignoring it because AI is cool. Whatever. Now, first of all, the whole trope of the this is nothing like.com was just a whole bunch of speculative websites. That's a fallacy that's wrong. All right? People always want to talk about pets.com, AOL, Netscape. They want to talk about these websites as the defining companies of the do bubble. That is untrue. That's just not how it works. They might have been the ones that hit the headlines, which is why people talk about them because they hit the headlines. But again, we got to look at the market weight. What was the market actually weighted in? The market was weighted in internet infrastructure companies. You could just look this up. All right, we have AI now. Again, like it's a good tool. You can use it and look up what were the top companies by
weight in the dot bubble. And they'll tell you it was Cisco, Intel, Microsoft, GE, this kind of stuff, right? The internet infrastructure, the people who made the hardware that supported the internet, not the websites. Of course, they were the picks and shovels of the internet. It's the same exact phrase. This is insanity to me. It's the same exact phrase they used back then. They're using it again now. Like, come on. The majority of the 41% S&P waiting in tech was in internet infrastructure. It was not in websites. So right there off the bat, we can just scratch off the whole, "Oh, the.com bubble was all specular websites." Or, you know, this time it's different because it's all AI infrastructure, picks and shovels. False. False. Gone. Get it out of there. The dot waiting was an internet infrastructure and not that's dot, right? Just like today, the waiting is in Nvidia, the data centers, AVGO, not in all birds, right? But even more
than that, these infrastructure companies were profitable. They were making revenue. They were making profits. They were they were strong companies just like the infrastructure companies today are strong companies cuz people just people just make stuff up. That's what I think. People just make stuff up without actually factecking themselves. People will say that, oh, you know, maybe it was internet infrastructure, but but they weren't profitable companies. They weren't massively profitable companies like today. These were all unprofitable, speculative companies at sky-high valuations. Just wrong. You can just go look back at the history. And that's exactly what we're going to do. We're going to take a look at Intel. Intel net income profits. That's the bottom line, right? Bottom line. Look at that. 2000, year 2000, right before the pop. That's 10 billion in profits right there. This is not a speculative company. They were cooking. They were cooking. Microsoft in 2000s. Another one. 10 billion in profits. Cisco three billion in profits a little bit less but
still a profitable company consistently right you see this you see the trend goes it's consistent profits here and then valuation we go to the valuation in 2000s this is the peak the peak of the bubble 30 times they were at 30 times earnings okay what are we talking about valuations were skyhigh Microsoft in 2000 50 times earnings well that's a little high but Don't we have much higher right now? And most of our AI infrastructure companies, aren't most of them over 50? Like what are we talking about? Like nobody's even look nobody's even looked back at the history. This is the problem. And now the biggest stretch you can get is Cisco. They went up to 129 price to earnings. But again, um AMD is at 126. So it's the same thing. Nvidia, AMD is at a 44 closer to like a Microsoft level. And then AVGO. AVGO is at 81 price earnings. So I mean we have a
bigger bubble here. It's worse this time around. And you got to understand when you're in a bubble, when you're in a buildout gold rush kind of bubble, the EPS gets over inflated because they're overbuilding. This is the whole thing. They are overbuilding capacity right now. That's why the chip companies are making so much in EPS. Like if we go back to Intel, you see like how much this EPS was riding up like that. They were overbuilding internet infrastructure and then when they realized demand was not meeting all that build, the floor gets pulled out from under them. When the floor gets pulled out from under them, crash. We've been getting massively overextended here. And now with the energy and the helium math, we're it's completely unsustainable. Like it just it doesn't work anymore. This whole thing is very clearly fried. Not forever. Like eventually like don't forget like internet is became a thing. Doesn't matter. The bubble still popped. I'm not saying that the MAG7 is going out of business. I'm saying they're not
putting up profits for the next 5 years. And if 45% of the S&Ps weighted in this, do you know what that means? That means everything falls apart. The market falls apart. People's retirement funds fall apart. Like everything breaks. Not to mention the consumer economyy's breaking up. That's a separate thing. The consumer economy is a separate thing. My warning to investors, that's a separate thing that's also happening at the same time. Oi, come on. Like, just cuz the stock prices are going up doesn't mean that things are just okay. It's the opposite of okay. They're literally cashing out on your face. They are cashing out on your face. And like, hey, if you're a trader, like if you are call options and this kind of stuff, good for you. Proud of you. Like, you're cooking. If you are, I feel like most of you are not cooking, but if you're cooking on this, good for you. But investors are not cooking because I know I know how you guys think you're not going to sell. Traders are at least like they got stop
losses. They got all sorts of stuff going on here. This is why I get so dire on the warnings, all right? Is because I know who my audience is. I know who my audience is. My audience isn't traders. If they were all traders, I'd just be like, "Yo, ride the wave. ride this wave because they are cooking it. They are gonna they're just gonna like do their thing until it eventually pops and then you keep your stop loss and when it pops you'll be good because you're stop lost. None of you guys are stop loss. This thing will drop 50% in a day and you just be sitting there like what happened? Buy the dip, right? Buy the dip. But it's going to be fried for three years. Five years. Three years minimum. So there's no dip to buy. There's nothing there's nothing to do here. you. What do you wake up? And I get I don't care if I sound like a doomer. It's because there's doom. Like, what are we talking about here? Like, should I not talk about it? Should I just like let you guys fall off a cliff? Like, I don't know. That's not what I want to do here. Other people are doing that. And that kind of pisses me off. Other other creators that I used to watch and very much respect, but everybody's just like, h whatever. You
know, I got my brand. I'm just going to pretend like everything's fine. It's not fine. Like, it's not. And I'm just not a person to lie. I'm not just one I'm not one to lie. So I don't care how I don't care what you guys think. I don't care what people want to be like, "Oh, you're a doomer. You're you're fear-mongering." I don't care. I'm just telling you the truth. I'm just telling you the obvious truth. If you don't want to listen, you don't have to listen. It's time. And this is all facts. Like this is numbers. Like this is literal math here. I saw someone say recession narrative. I saw that in the Discord. Rest in peace to Discord. I'm not even looking at that anymore. I actually deleted the app. Uh I don't know how that's going. I'll be back in a year or so. not a year, but like a couple months or something. I'll be back eventually, but I feel so much better now not even looking at that thing. It was like watching ducks lead each other off a cliff. I just I couldn't I couldn't watch it anymore. It was It was depressing. But I saw someone say uh recession narrative narrative. What are you talking about narrative? This is like dollars and cents in math. It's like clearly happening. And we're like, "Oh yeah, like this this might happen. This might happen." literal like missiles dropping on you like a nuke of
flying down and you're just going, "Huh, I wonder if that's going to hit me." Yeah, it's going to hit you. What? What? And I'm making a separate thing for the AI bubble to let people in the middle class and upper class know that you're not spared either. Cuz I know I've seen a lot of people go, "Oh, you know, it's just going to affect the poories, right? Pisses me off. Don't don't." The way the way some people look down on the poor disgusts me. But you're screwed too. You're screwed too because if 45% of the market is riding on AI and that's about to pop separate to this whole consumer recession thing, you're screwed too. So what what nobody nobody is spared in this scenario except unless you got a bunker, you know, unless you're a elite. If you're an elite with a bunker, well, you're not watching my channel, so I don't care. But middle class is going to lower class. lower class. I'm sorry. Like, you guys are fried. I assume you guys are a little more scrappy than the middle class. So, I hope you guys will be fine. But yeah, upper and middle class, you guys are fried. You're so
fried because you're not expecting it. You're not going to be expecting the layoffs. You're not going to be expecting the the bubble burst. You're not expecting any of it. And you're just thinking, "Oh, yeah, it'll be fine." Yeah, prices will go up. Whatever. I don't care. It's not going to affect me. Yes, it will. Absolutely it will. And now, finally, when does the bubble burst? I don't actually know exactly when, but I got some theories. I got some theories I'll throw around here. First theory for the bubble pop tomorrow. Literally tomorrow. Wednesday. Wednesday after close. For some reason, for some odd reason, we have the four main guys in question, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Google. All four of them are reporting after close together at the same time. That's never happened before. That has never happened before. Like they usually report in the same week, but they don't all report on the same day at the same time. They're dropping a bomb. They're
dropping a bomb. Hey, maybe they're saying, "Oh, it's it's all going to be fine. It's all going to be great. We're going to spend another half a trillion dollars. Whatever." Maybe. Or maybe they say, "Yeah, this helium thing is a real problem." And yeah, we have to show and they're gonna have to show on their income statements that they're actually taking a net loss now. Or even if they can right now, they're going to have to guide for the fact that yeah, this helium disruption is just not being solved. Like nobody's resolving this thing and next quarter is not going to look so good. It's either next quarter is not going to look so good or we're going to have to stop spending. Either way, that crashes the stock because if they have to stop spending, what do you think happens to the semiconductors? What do you what do you think the money for this the the spend goes? The spend goes to the semiconductors. They it goes to AMD. It goes to Nvidia. So, everything's crashing. If they stop spending, the whole thing crashes. If they keep spending, they're going to have to tell you that they're screwed because of the
helium destruction. So, that'll be my first theory. I don't know exactly, maybe, maybe not, but uh that would be my first theory. Second theory is the obvious one. Just like do the the peak of dot was Amazon and Netscape's IPO. When they IPOed and they had to show like how bad this this actually is. Yeah. That's probably when this whole thing comes crashing down. When Open AI and Anthropic go public and they have to reveal their income statements. Remember that's what's being hidden right now. I can show you the pricing model, but I'm sure that math doesn't even register to a lot of people. They're just like, "Ah, it's probably fine." Yeah. When you have to look in the face a,500% loss, when you have to look that in the face, they're gone. They're gone. They're going be like, "Oh, this is not sustainable at all." So, when those guys IPO, SpaceX, although Space, it's not really an AI company, is it? But when specifically Open AI and Anthropic have to IPO, gone, done, done, done. No, I think it
happens before that because remember in we didn't have a war. We didn't have an insane war going on. We straight up horm wasn't closed. You know what I'm saying? We had time to wait for them to hit. And then there's a bunch of other factors, right? Um rate hikes. If there's a Fed meeting, I think it's tomorrow. I think I think it's on the same day as Amazon and whatever. If he ends up hiking also, we got double catalyst. We got double catalyst right there because if he hikes rates them the market's going to crash because people are just like the bearish take right now is that you know he's just going to hold off on cuts right now. He's just going to hold off on cuts. Nobody's expecting a rate hike. I don't know why. You definitely should expect a rate hike but nobody's even expecting it. They're more expecting a rate cut because I don't know. People still believe in Trump. I I can't believe that. I can't believe that people are still like Trump Trump. Like it doesn't make any sense. But those are my main theories. You know, we have the
double whammy on tomorrow with Wednesday and then we have open AI anthropic IPO which you know I don't even know when that's going to be. It's probably like next month. But then the third thing again separate from the bubble again separate from the bubble. The global depression has nothing to do with the bubble. All right. This is just a cherry on top. AI bubbles, a cherry on top. The disruption to oil, food, and all this stuff in an environment where the economy is already trash. What are you What are you talking about? How do you How do you even think that anyone's getting out in scarier? The consumer is twothirds of GDP. It's twothirds of the economy. When they stop spending, it's over. It's over. And then because of the AI bubble, nobody's spared. Nobody's spared. You're going to have no money. Your stocks are cooked. Your stocks are all cooked. Unless you're like an individual stock picker
and you pick the right stocks. You know what you're doing. You're delever from AI and you're in you're you're isolated from that. Well, you're going to do a pretty good job. But you know, if you got funds, funds are fried. Okay? AI, anything AI related, techreated, fried because they're held in funds. They're held in tech funds together. If you have a Dowheavy portfolio, you'll be all right. I think you'll be all right. Dividends, DAO, consumer, even the consumer's fried that you're not in a tech fund. You're not in a tech fund. You'll be okay because those valuations are chill. Those valuations are calm. Dow valuations are on the floor. IWM is still on the floor. Like the only thing that's if you got a Q heavy S&P heavy portfolio fried like some rice. Okay. And do keep in mind uh this is not some kind of flash crash. This is not like a COVID type of thing. This is not ter obviously it's not tariffs. It's not even close to tariffs. Tariffs was fake news. Tariffs was literally fake news.
Of course that would flash crash. Explain that already. But we're looking at not just the 2022 type bare market. This is something we've never seen before. This is a type of bare market that we've never seen before. Well, not never. I guess do is like that, but we're looking at like two years. Yeah, we're looking at like two years. Now, I think certain individual stocks can still perform well, but on a broad market basis, yeah, everything's fried. Everything's so so fried. So, that will be my call. I put it down. I stake it. I stake the reputation on it. I I put it down. I don't care because it's it's pretty it's pretty damn obvious. All right. I mean, look how many things are stacked up like that. It's too many things. It's not like one thing. It's not like, oh, the economy looks kind of bad. Oh, like the dollar is being devalued. No, it's everything like everything's hitting at the same time. Like, I don't know how anyone can ignore this because it's not just one thing. It's not like one thing here. All the excuses that we had before
like, oh, the Mac 7 keeps us afloat. Oh, the tech company. Oh, AI. Like, that's gone. The excuses are gone. There is no bailout. The only excuse that you have is what? Trump's going to save us. What are you even talking about? Trump's going to save us. How? How? Seriously, how? I have more faith in Elon than Trump. Like, there's no there's no saving. There's no savior here except Jesus, right? Jesus Christ always the savior. And that's why I'll be fine. Anyone with faith will be fine. Totally fine. Telling you. But uh the rest of you just blinded by greed. Yeah, you're not fine at all. Very screwed. But I'm here to warn you. So, you're welcome. Come on. But that's the deal. For anyone still here, I'm gonna leave you with this message here because if you guys are still here, you're probably a subscriber, at least a semi a fan of me. Just want to let you guys know I'm not trying to change my content or anything. I'm not like stop I'm not going to stop making stock market content. I'm not going to stop making investing content. But, I mean, right now, guys, what else is there to talk
about? Is there anything else to talk about? I'm not trying to be a doomer. I'm not trying to be like a fear-mongering. No, I'm just not going to lie to you. That's the difference. I'm not going to sit here and lie to you. I physically can't do that. I mean, it makes me sick to my stomach. You can look at the last top five video I made. Like, I I couldn't I couldn't stomach making it. It was like cuz I was on the fence. I was like, man, like I this is kind of the brand that I have right now. Like, this is the, you know, investing long-term blah blah blah. All the fake faux garbage. But I'm sitting here lying to you. There's like a tornado coming. And I'm just like I have to just go, "Hey guys, there's a tornado there. Do you see that?" And everyone just go, "No, you're lying. You're fear-mongering." But it's right there. It's right there. So, I mean, like, what else is there to talk about? I can't I can't lie. It's not It's not something I do. So, while this is happening, and until it hits, this is all I'm going to talk about. Only thing worth buying right now. Rice, beans, tuna, seeds, water filtration, depending on where you live, stuff like that. Survival gear. Not a joke. Not a joke. Not an
exaggeration. Just because the stock market's going up because of manipulation doesn't mean the world doesn't mean there's not a tornado right there. Hello. And do understand I have to wrestle with this. I had to wrestle with this for a while. You understand that my channel I'm in a lose-lose situation here because I can make the generic buy stocks. Oh, the stock market's going up. Ho ho AMT. Look at my AMT. I could make I can make that content, but you know, I know it's gonna hit. So, when it all hits, you guys leave. You guys leave and go, "Oh, he's an idiot. He's gone. I'm gone." Like, you know, like that's what happens. Or I can do what I'm doing now and I can tell the truth and warn everyone and everyone gets mad right now and still when it all hits, you still leave. You still leave because you lost all your money, right? That's just that's just I know how these things work and I know that it's not going to be like, "Oh, dang. We should have listened. Maybe we'll listen now." It's going to be like, "Dang, he was right. Never listen to this guy again." H what can you do? Doesn't really matter. So,
if it's a lose-lose, I'm going to choose the truth every time. So, that's just how it is. And plus, I'll get to have it on the record. I get to have it on the record. I called the bubble. I called the thing. Although everybody knows, everybody outside of the market knows that the economy is about to collapse. I don't know how you guys don't see it, but everybody else can see it. AI bubble, that's a bit of a mixed bag because there are just AI bears out there. I get that. So, I understand a lot of people cannot understand that the bubble's about to collapse, but the economy, that one's obvious. I don't know how you guys can't see this, but the bubble specifically, I'm going to have that on record. I'm going to have that on record day before. Day before the imagine, imagine day before the pop. I have it on record. So, but for the 10 of you who are going to stick around, love you guys. Uh you guys are still here. I just want you guys to know still going to be investing. You know, fundamentals, financial valuation, I'm still going to be here. I'm still going to be doing my thing. Warnings only come before the crash. And once it all hits, well then, boy, what do you think I'm
going to be doing? I'm going to be picking up the pieces. I'm going to be going scavening. I'm going to be picking up all the different I'm going to be buying AI stocks. That's what you guys got to understand. Bubbles's going to pop and I'm going to be buying AI stocks. Okay? That's why before I even dip the Discord, I was saying like, you know, I'm going be watching Intel, Qualcomm, like I'm going to be watching a few things because I know the actual direction that things are headed in. But obviously, as you guys also know, you saw my last video or so. I think it was the last one. You know, I'm still invested. Moonbo, of course, Celsius, E.L.F., Honest. Anything else? Nike. Nike. I'm big on Nike. I like Nike a lot. still have cake. Little iffy on cake, but I think it'll be okay. It's a restaurant, but I think it'll be okay. And a few other consumers. Like, I'm still be making updates on those. I'm still covering those. I'll be looking for anything else crashes. But really, when the crash comes, I will be buying AI stocks because fundamentals, financials, and valuations as always. But thanks so much for watching. Y'all have a good one.